Cyberpunk 2077 on Stadia

My goodness, some people feel the need to try to dunk on Stadia at every opportunity without any actual data/facts/experience behind their arguments.

Some folks are doing a lot of extrapolating today from a “chuckle” response to an interview question from a person who was probably just not allowed to answer it.

Is there any actual data on CP2077 usage on Stadia we can use to derive an intelligent conclusion about sales? Let’s see and make a few points while we are at it:

A) First off, no one should expect the population of a game on Stadia to match the population of Steam. It is a brand new technology that is one year old!! It has been growing steadily, but, for example, Netflix’s direct streaming didn’t compare to DVDs in a single year — it was a slog over many years.

B) The number of CP2077 players on Stadia would probably surprise you! Let’s try to estimate it based on data we do have…

If you look at stadiastats.gg, you’ll see there are 26,000 Stadians listed (about 9,000 of which have their play time public as well).

Of these 26,000 listed Stadians, 7,791 of them have played Sniper Elite 4 — but we also know that 226,000 Stadians have played enough Sniper Elite 4 to be listed on the games’ Stadia leaderboard. This game has the best leaderboard to look at because it combines all game modes into one combined leaderboard and it is very quick to get listed on.

Therefore, one would estimate that the stadiastats.gg dataset contains about 7.791/226 = 3.45% of active Stadians since November.

Aside: In reality, this dataset probably doesn’t uniformly sample the Stadia community. In fact, the extrapolation above likely underestimates the entire Stadia population for a number of reasons — one obvious one is that we know app downloads are likely in the 2.5–5 million range.

On the other hand, I’ll note that SE4 was a pro game, and it is possible that stadiastats.gg has a smaller representation of Pro subscribers (and perhaps people who just give Stadia a try for a month and then quit) than people who don’t subscribe but just buy AAA games — i.e. CP2077 players may be over represented in the data compared to SE4 players.

It’s hard to know what the bias of this data set is, but, with ~26,000 data points, we can likely at least trust the order of magnitude of estimates derived from it…

Therefore, as an order-of-magnitude estimate, we find that:

The number of Stadians who have played CP2077 ~ 7,780 / 0.0345 ~ 200,000 Stadians

The number of hours of Cyberpunk streamed on Stadia ~ 123,600 * (26 / 9) / 0.0345 ~10 Million Hours

The error bars are obviously very big on these numbers (probably anywhere from 2–3x smaller to 2–3x bigger), but, as I emphasized above, this should give an order of magnitude estimate.

I’m sure these aren’t anywhere near the Steam numbers. But, they are respectable for a brand new technology and platform. GeForce Now reported 4 Million streamed hours (from December-February) of CP2077 for example, which people, uniformly, seemed to be quite impressed by…

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